Access to flu vaccine ‘will fall short’ - WHO warns of global shortage

Access to flu vaccine ‘will fall short’ - WHO warns of global shortage
By Andrew Jack in London and Frances Williams in Geneva
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Published: May 19 2009 14:11 | Last updated: May 19 2009 14:11
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a27003a-446d-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0.html


A third of the world’s population at best could be provided by pandemic flu vaccine over the coming year even if a decision is made to produce it in the next few weeks, according to estimates released on Tuesday by the World Health Organisation.

A group of scientists, pharmaceutical company employees and other vaccine specialists concluded that even the most efficient production techniques would allow for a maximum of 4.9bn doses to be made within 12 months, with two doses likely to be required to offer protection from the H1N1 swine flu virus.

Their conclusions came ahead of a meeting between senior pharmaceutical executives and the World Health Organisation on Tuesday afternoon to discuss ways to offer greater vaccine coverage in the developing world, with the agency still holding back from recommending a switch from seasonal to pandemic flu vaccine production.

The working group cautioned that existing seasonal vaccines, including those containing adjuvants to boost the human immune system, did not neutralise the H1N1 virus, and that it still needed more data before recommending a switch away from seasonal vaccines. Such a decision is likely “in the next few weeks.”

It said that any decision to raise the current level of pandemic alert to the highest level would not automatically trigger a switch to pandemic vaccine manufacture, and that producers would not in any case be ready to switch to large-scale production before mid-July this year.

Current seasonal flu vaccine production is forecast to reach 480m doses during 2009, and any switch risks lower productivity and uncertain health benefits, while seasonal vaccination has a proven effect in limiting the significant numbers of hospitalisations and deaths.

The experts said a new pandemic H1N1 vaccine could generate lower yields than seasonal vaccines, and its safety profile remained unknown, raising the need for tight surveillance of its possible future use to identify any side effects. If 4.9bn doses were produced in the coming 12 months, it said there was “potential access” to the United Nations of 400m doses.

Katherine Sebelius, the new US secretary for health and human services, said the US was accelerating its production of seasonal flu vaccine production, and unlike a number of countries in Europe had not yet ordered any pandemic vaccine supplies because of continuing uncertainties.

“We’re trying to accelerate production of seasonal flu vaccine so the production capacity is available to turn to an H1N1 vaccine, should that be required or necessary,” she said. “The [Food & Drug Administration] is working very closely with NIH on the science and the safety of a new vaccine production. So the steps [towards a pandemic vaccine] are being aggressively pursued.”

Richard Besser, acting head of the US Centres for Disease Prevention and Control, said the US, Canada and Mexico had taken a common approach in sharing information about the virus, sharing strains etc. “We [the US] are working to develop vaccine seed strains to share with manufacturers around the world. We’ve been sharing diagnostic kits and so far we’ve sent kits to 237 laboratories in 107 countries.”