Pawlenty To Retire With An Eye on 2012

Pawlenty To Retire With An Eye on 2012
By Chris Cillizza
Copyright by The Washington Post
June 2, 2009
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/pawlenty-to-retire.html?hpid=topnews

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) will not seek a third term. (AP Photo/The Star Tribune, Elizabeth Flores)

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will not seek a third term in 2010, clearing the way for an expected bid for the 2012 presidential nomination, according to sources close to the governor.

Pawlenty will announce that he is not running later this afternoon in a conference call with reporters scheduled for 3 p.m. eastern time.

The decision comes after months of debate within Pawlenty's inner circle about his next step politically.

Given the difficult state of the economy -- both nationally and in Minnesota -- as well as Pawlenty's near-death political experience in 2006, running for a third term was a precarious endeavor.

And, a loss in a 2010 bid would almost certainly disqualify Tpaw as a potential presidential candidate in 2012 ala former Virginia Sen. George Allen in 2006/2008.

We've written before that if Pawlenty had interest in national office, which he clearly does, that it would be crazy for him to seek a third term in 2010.

Pawlenty's decision to forego a third term to focus on his national ambitions -- he won't say that's why he is retiring but it is -- has a few immediate implications.

First, Pawlenty is under far less pressure to certify Democrat Al Franken as the winner in the Minnesota Senate race if the state Supreme Court rejects the election appeal of former Sen. Norm Coleman.

As we wrote a few weeks back:

Assuming he doesn't plan to run for reelection, Pawlenty can refuse to sign the election certificate for Franken -- if Coleman wants to take the legal fight federal -- and continue to raise his national profile by arguing (in his low key, inoffensive way) on a variety of televisions outlets that he is simply trying to ensure no legitimate votes are left uncounted, a GREAT issue for him in the eyes of GOP base voters.
That remains just as true today. So, if Coleman decides he wants to take the case to the federal level if he were to lose at the state court level, there's now a significantly higher likelihood that Pawlenty would be receptive to such a move.

Second, expect Pawlenty over the next few months to begin doing the sorts of things -- making a "big ideas" speech or two, traveling to Iowa and New Hampshire, recruiting staff, starting a federal PAC -- that people looking at running for president must do.

Pawlenty, unlike some of the men (and woman) he may well run against in 2012 for the GOP nomination, has almost no political operation to speak of -- a weakness that he must move to quickly remedy in the coming months.

While he does keep up with a handful of Washington-based operatives he does not have the sort of formalized team that someone like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has kept in place after his unsuccessful 2008 presidential run.

For Pawlenty to begin moving up in the so-called "Invisible Primary", he needs to quickly ramp up his national team and begin traveling the country in support of his candidacy.

What he does have going for him is a record of electoral success in a swing Midwestern state, a natural populist streak that is sorely lacking among the the current Republican leaders and a strongly conservative record sure to appeal to the party base. Make sure to read our "case for" and "case against" Pawlenty as a potential veep pick for McCain in 2008.

We'll update this post following Pawlenty's press conference this afternoon.