China Overtakes Germany as Top Exporter

China Overtakes Germany as Top Exporter
By JUDY DEMPSEY
Copyright by The New York Times
Published: February 9, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/business/global/10export.html?hpw


BERLIN — Disappointed but not surprised, Germany lost its status as the world’s leading exporter, as China’s surging economy pushed it into first place last year, according to official German data published Tuesday.

Chinese exports amounted to $1.2 trillion in 2009, while German exports totaled $1.1 trillion, or €797 billion, the German Federal Statistical Office said. Germany became the top world exporter in 2003, surpassing the United States.

Apart from the sheer size of China, it was the global economic downturn that propelled it past Germany as top exporter, as Germany’s trading partners in the United States and the European Union cut back on investments, consumers cut back on spending and banks cut back on lending.

Last year Germany also sustained the worst annual decline in its trade balance since figures were first gathered back in the 1950s. Although German exports still outpaced imports by €136.1 billion in 2009, the surplus in 2008 was €178.3 billion.

The decline in German exports was most acute inside the European Union, Germany’s largest market. Exports to the bloc fell 19.1 percent in 2009, to €503.5 billion. Exports to non-E.U. countries fell 17.1 percent, to €299.7 billion.

German exports to the United States have been particularly hard hit by the global downturn, with many sectors, from engineering, forest products, furniture and the automobile industry reporting sharp declines in exports, according to the data released Tuesday.

The Federation of German Industries, an influential employers’ group, said Tuesday that “it had only been a question of time” before China would become the world’s No.1 exporter, in part because of the magnitude of the export sector in the Chinese economy.

“In terms of those living and working in China, it is about 15 times more than Germany,” said Werner Schnappauf, director of the federation, which represents 100,000 businesses with eight million employees.

Mr. Schnappauf said Germany remained the world’s most successful exporter for advanced technologies. “And even though Germany is just 1 percent of the world’s population, it has, worldwide, a 16 percent market share in green technologies,” he added.

Marc Tenbieg, adviser to the German Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, noted that even if China retained the top spot, Germany’s export sector would remain the engine of the German economy. He said the group had been surprised that Germany had held on so long, “given the huge rise of China and the sheer size of its economy.”

The figures showed an uptick in German exports for the month of December, to €69 billion, an increase of 3.4 percent from a year earlier.

Researchers at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note Tuesday that they expected German exports to start increasing in the coming months as companies started investing again and consumer spending slowly picked up.

Much depends on the rate of recovery by the world economy. Hans-Peter Keitel, president of the Federation of German Industries, has been very cautious, saying in a recent speech that “bank balance sheets still show a substantial need for further write-downs while economic stimulus packages have ended in several countries.”