Poll shows Gov. Pat Quinn leading Democrats and former Attorney General Jim Ryan leading Republicans - Many voters in both parties undecided on candid

Poll shows Gov. Pat Quinn leading Democrats and former Attorney General Jim Ryan leading Republicans - Many voters in both parties undecided on candidate for governor
By Rick Pearson
Copyright © 2009, Chicago Tribune
December 13, 2009
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-gov-poll-13-bdogdec13,0,1579695.story


Gov. Pat Quinn holds a sizable early advantage over state Comptroller Dan Hynes in a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll that shows Democratic voters satisfied with the governor's performance since the disgraced Rod Blagojevich was booted from the job.

And as Republicans look at Blagojevich's scandalous downfall as a chance to resurrect their fortunes, an old face is leading the field: former Attorney General Jim Ryan, who is seeking redemption after losing to Blagojevich in 2002. Ryan, whose last name proved problematic back then, has the backing of more than a quarter of Republican voters in the Feb. 2 primary, though even more are undecided.

Next year is the first time Illinois voters will pick a governor since Blagojevich was arrested, impeached, removed and indicted amid a swirl of blockbuster federal political corruption charges that for a time riveted the nation and made the state a late-night TV punch line.

Among the 600 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed by telephone Dec. 2-8, Quinn had the support of 49 percent to 23 percent for Hynes, the three-term comptroller. Among other candidates, activist William "Dock" Walls had 3 percent, and attorney Ed Scanlan had 2 percent. An additional 21 percent were undecided; 2 were for others. The poll has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

The gap in political contests traditionally closes somewhat as the election nears. But in a very combative Democratic governor primary, the survey results show the pressure is on Hynes to use what's left of the campaign to persuade Quinn supporters to defect. Indications are that it may not be easy.

Hynes could try to link Quinn to Blagojevich. Quinn served two terms as Blagojevich's lieutenant governor and has refused to apologize for backing Blagojevich. During the 2006 re-election campaign, Quinn defended Blagojevich as someone who has "always been a person who's honest and one of integrity," despite myriad investigations into his administration.

While Republicans already are trying to make the former governor an issue, the poll showed the Blagojevich factor is not looming large in the Democratic primary. More than three out of four Democrats said it made no difference when asked whether Quinn's association with Blagojevich made them more or less likely to cast a ballot for him.

Voters also approve of Quinn's handling of ethics reform in the post-Blagojevich era by a nearly 2-1 ratio and gave him a similar advantage over Hynes when asked which candidate would better eliminate corruption. Moreover, almost a year into office, Quinn's job approval rating is 58 percent, compared with 18 percent who disapprove. Hynes also earns a high approval rating from voters for his performance as comptroller, 51 percent, compared with 11 percent who disapprove.

Hynes' campaign theme is that the state's money problems are worsening under the governor, but Quinn won the approval of 46 percent of voters for his handling of the budget, compared with 27 percent who disapprove.

Quinn and Hynes have called for an income-tax increase to help resolve a $12 billion budget deficit. But Democratic voters are split over whether they believe a tax hike is needed: 45 percent say it's not necessary, and 42 percent say it is. Among Quinn's supporters, 57 percent said they believed a tax increase is needed, while 38 percent of Hynes' backers said they think one is necessary.

"Right now, it seems like the state's in financial trouble and (Quinn) doesn't seem to be afraid if he's not popular," said poll respondent Gennene Johnson, a social worker and married mother of two from West Rogers Park. "He's not worried about the way he's perceived."

On the Republican side, the poll of 600 likely GOP voters found Ryan with the support of 26 percent, to 12 percent for Andy McKenna, the former state party chairman.

At 10 percent was state Sen. Bill Brady, of Bloomington, an unsuccessful 2006 Republican governor candidate, while state Sen. Kirk Dillard, of Hinsdale, had 9 percent. Three other candidates had the support of 6 percent or less of GOP voters.

But 31 percent of Republican voters were undecided, meaning the shape of the GOP governor contest could change rapidly as the campaigns develop and voters hone in on candidates' messages. The findings indicate name recognition is playing the dominant role in the campaign.

McKenna, an unsuccessful 2004 U.S. Senate contender, has been the most visible TV campaigner, billing himself as an outsider.

That appealed to Laura Isaacs, a 50-year-old Vernon Hills resident who said she hasn't done much research yet but thought McKenna seemed less a part of the machine.

"I do not want any incumbent in office at this point, because I think that our government is so corrupt, especially in Illinois," Isaacs said. "I would definitely go with an outsider before I would go for another political hack."

Ryan, one of the last entrants in the race, is known after serving two terms in statewide office. He is getting the support of one-third of collar county primary voters and one in five voters outside the city and suburbs to take the early edge despite a lack of high-profile public campaigning.

McKenna, who had a controversial four-year tenure as state GOP chairman with no statewide Republican victories, was known by two-thirds of primary voters. Brady, the lone candidate from outside the Chicago area, was familiar to two-thirds of Downstate voters but to little more than half of voters in the city and suburbs. Dillard was known by three-quarters of collar county voters but only 42 percent of downstate voters.

Trailing Dillard was Hinsdale transparency advocate Adam Andrzejewski, with 6 percent. Political pundit Dan Proft of Chicago and DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom of Naperville each had 2 percent. An additional 2 percent of the respondents said they supported someone else.

In contrast to Quinn and Hynes, all seven Republican candidates have expressed opposition to raising taxes. Almost 9 of 10 GOP primary voters said opposing a tax hike is important to them in choosing a candidate.

Yet 49 percent of Republican voters said they believe it isn't very likely that the party's candidates can keep their anti-tax promises.

But it is the 31 percent of undecided voters that makes the outcome of the contest far from certain as candidates use the post-New Year holiday period to ramp up TV advertising and telephone pitches. A majority isn't necessary to win the nomination -- in 2006, Judy Baar Topinka won a four-way primary with 38 percent of the vote.

Tribune reporters Cynthia Dizikes and David Heinzmann contributed to this report. rap30@aol.com